In 2025, the global consumer landscape is defined by both resilience and adaptation in the face of significant economic pressures.

With an expanding consumer class projected to include 106 million new entrants, the total number of middle and rich consumers surpasses 4 billion for the first time.

This growth, however, is tempered by inflation, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty, shaping how people spend their money worldwide.

These dynamics reveal a world where spending patterns are both evolving and enduring.

The New Consumer Landscape: Macro Trends and Shifts

Consumer behavior is rapidly transforming, driven by several pivotal trends.

Sustainability has emerged as a key focus, with 58% of global consumers willing to pay more for eco-friendly products.

This figure rises to 60% among Millennials and Gen Z, as well as urban consumers.

Digital payments are gaining traction, with 24% of people using mobile payment methods in the past month.

In North America, this jumps to 29%, highlighting regional nuances.

Subscription services, such as streaming and social media platforms, are on the rise.

31% of consumers are subscribed to streaming, up 16% since 2019.

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services offer flexibility, especially for younger cohorts.

Experiences are increasingly favored over goods, with a global shift towards memorable activities.

• Sustainability: 58% pay premium for eco-friendly products.
• Digital Payments: 24% use mobile payments monthly.
• Subscriptions: 31% subscribed to streaming services.
• BNPL: Rising adoption among younger consumers.
• Experiences Over Goods: Global preference for activities.

Economic Pressures: Inflation and Geopolitical Tensions

Inflation is the top concern for 62% of global respondents, driving anticipated spending increases.

In developed markets, 84% expect their spending to rise due to inflation.

In developing markets, this figure is 70%, focusing more on essentials.

Consumer confidence has turned negative since June 2025 in most markets.

This is largely due to geopolitical tensions influencing economic outlooks.

Half of consumers in developed markets expect growth slowdowns.

This pessimism impacts discretionary spending decisions significantly.

• Inflation Drives Spending: 84% in developed markets anticipate increases.
• Geopolitical Impact: Negative confidence since mid-2025.
• Essential Focus: Shift away from big-ticket items.
• Consumer Worries: 74% concerned about rising everyday prices.

Regional and Demographic Insights

Spending patterns vary widely across different regions and age groups.

This table highlights the diversity in consumer behavior globally.

For instance, Gen Z and Millennials are at the forefront of digital and sustainable trends.

Meanwhile, affluent consumers show more resilience in their spending habits.

The US in Focus: Resilience and Vulnerability

In the United States, spending growth is slowing to 3.7% nominal in 2025, down from 5.7% in 2024.

This slowdown is due to factors like a cooling labor market and policy uncertainty.

Affluent consumers are carrying much of the spending, while lower-income groups face more vulnerability.

Housing market trends show modest growth, with existing home sales expected to increase by 2% in 2025.

Consumer credit remains healthy, supported by low unemployment rates.

• Spending Growth: Slows to 3.7% in 2025.
• Affluent Resilience: Less impact from market volatility.
• Housing Trends: +2% sales in 2025.
• Credit Health: Delinquencies rise but defaults are low.

Holiday and seasonal shifts reveal intriguing patterns among younger consumers.

Gen Z has reduced overall spending by 13% from January to April.

This includes cuts in apparel and electronics purchases.

Holiday plans have been cut by 23% after previous increases.

• Gen Z Cuts: -13% overall spending, -23% holiday plans.
• Essentials Stable: Increases in meat, dairy, shelf-stable items.
• Discretionary Down: Cuts in fresh produce and luxury goods.

Sector Impacts: Essentials vs. Discretionary

The "lipstick effect" is evident, with 39% of consumers splurging on small luxuries.

75% of consumers trade down in at least one category, opting for cheaper alternatives.

50% delay discretionary purchases like electronics and dining out.

However, spending on essentials such as groceries and gas remains largely unchanged for 40%.

This strategic budgeting reflects a cautious yet adaptive approach.

• Small Luxuries: 39% splurge on affordable indulgences.
• Trading Down: 75% in at least one category.
• Delayed Discretionary: 50% postpone big purchases.
• Stable Essentials: 40% maintain spending on basics.

Looking Ahead: Scenarios and Opportunities

The future of consumer spending hinges on economic scenarios and cooperative policies.

A global prisoner's dilemma could arise from self-interested national policies.

This might lead to suboptimal outcomes for global growth and stability.

However, upside potential exists from public investment and infrastructure boosts.

For businesses, opportunities lie in promoting BNPL services and enhancing digital experiences.

Focusing on sustainability can also tap into growing consumer preferences.

As the consumer class continues to grow, understanding these patterns is crucial.

• Economic Scenarios: Cooperation vs. self-interest.
• Opportunities: BNPL, digital payments, sustainable products.
• Consumer Growth: 100M+ new entrants despite challenges.
• Future Outlook: Resilience through adaptation and innovation.

In conclusion, the global consumer in 2025 is a complex and adaptive force.

By recognizing shifts towards essentials, digital adoption, and experiential spending, stakeholders can better navigate this evolving market.

Embracing these trends offers a path to engagement and growth in uncertain times.